Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 21.149312 23.091517 25.251815 27.857796 30.950892 34.550875 39.128778
2024-12-29 18.267250 20.798616 23.832511 27.825610 33.090202 40.034086 50.359762
2025-01-05 16.315092 19.137078 22.708874 27.738599 34.976280 45.673652 64.347376
2025-01-12 14.713935 17.622361 21.449963 27.119305 35.862753 50.107236 79.111167
2025-01-19 14.054776 17.207043 21.533137 28.313602 39.662926 60.606032 114.059601
2025-01-26 13.121572 16.293534 20.767718 28.054334 40.984090 67.250545 149.425017
2025-02-02 12.441680 15.651844 20.297152 28.145501 42.908286 76.153075 210.710757
2025-02-09 11.903223 15.153333 19.968650 28.392198 45.175517 87.349106 327.136486
2025-02-16 11.400270 14.658070 19.582039 28.459241 47.087582 99.163508 558.066493
2025-02-23 10.873532 14.084102 19.009505 28.095411 47.955424 108.698550 1013.532879
2025-03-02 10.480510 13.682537 18.674477 28.118286 49.737124 123.502238 3596.440649
2025-03-09 10.084919 13.249320 18.246858 27.898357 50.870854 137.442480 NaN
2025-03-16 9.700784 12.816608 17.795004 27.592128 51.778218 152.499492 NaN
2025-03-23 9.359688 12.432471 17.397125 27.347372 52.821599 170.914970 NaN
2025-03-30 9.058426 12.094678 17.053584 27.172242 54.044916 194.098827 NaN
2025-04-06 8.711808 11.666615 16.522790 26.536419 53.719077 206.421948 NaN
2025-04-13 8.648046 11.690496 16.790864 27.669827 59.436660 296.496398 NaN
2025-04-20 8.396098 11.393033 16.457778 27.413007 60.420590 344.473258 NaN
2025-04-27 8.206579 11.189354 16.282044 27.497493 62.713378 437.977262 NaN
2025-05-04 8.048359 11.029763 16.176211 27.733274 65.738283 605.291026 NaN
2025-05-11 7.879093 10.843564 16.007734 27.797110 68.157655 849.701756 NaN
2025-05-18 7.671956 10.584735 15.686228 27.447104 68.708011 1074.474103 NaN
2025-05-25 7.519001 10.411992 15.519581 27.468986 70.997752 1736.816402 NaN